Dr. Muhammad Masoud al-Ahbab
Expert in Political and Strategic Affairs
The Russo-Ukrainian War has recently experienced a significant escalation, particularly after reports emerged in early May 2023 that the Kremlin was targeted by drones. Speculation has increased that a Ukrainian counterattack is imminent in the eastern and southern regions. This escalation is accompanied by a major danger on the horizon related to the possibility of Russia resorting to the use of nuclear weapons.
What are the most critical manifestations of escalation in the war? First, numerous Ukrainian attacks have been launched, or at least attacks crossed Ukraine’s border against Russian targets. On May 3rd, the Kremlin was targeted by two drones that penetrated multiple layers of air defense before being shot down near the center of Russia’s seat of government. Russia immediately accused Ukraine of launching a terrorist attack aimed at assassinating President Vladimir Putin, while Ukraine denied involvement. However, press reports suggested that Ukraine may have been involved. Cross-border attacks are intended to divert Russian forces from the front line. On May 22, Russia repelled a two-day cross-border attack by Russian anti-Kremlin and pro-Kyiv fighters on Russia’s southern Belgorod province, the largest incursion into Russian territory since the war began. The Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteers Corps claimed responsibility for the attack, which was immediately followed by a drone strike on the same target. Ukraine has denied any involvement in the attack. On May 24th, Russia announced that it had thwarted a Ukrainian drone boat attack on a Russian warship near the Bosphorus. On May 28th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that they had intercepted British long-range Storm Shadow and American short-range Himars and Harm missiles; these attacks are aimed at diverting the attention of Russian forces away from the front line.
Moreover, the so-called “jet alliance” has been launched to supply Kyiv with F-16 jets. This alliance was announced by Britain, particularly after the US decision to allow allies to supply Ukraine with these jets. Ukrainian pilots will be trained to operate them first in Denmark and the Netherlands. This qualitative development signals a shift in Western strategy from merely assisting Kyiv in avoiding defeat to actively pushing for its victory.
On the other hand, Russia continues to carry out large-scale missile and air strikes on various regions of Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv, targeting critical infrastructure and air defense systems. After facing increasing threats to its western and southwestern borders and receiving indications of an imminent Ukrainian counterattack, Russia deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus under an agreement between the two countries signed on May 25, 2023.
On the other hand, fighting continues along the front lines, particularly on the “main” eastern front in the Donbas region, which includes Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Meanwhile, Russian-backed Wagner Group forces have recently gained full control of the city of Bakhmut in Donetsk province, eight months after the attack began. Furthermore, Ukraine has received significant commitments of military aid, particularly from Germany, with approximately $3 billion, and the European Union, with $2.2 billion. During the G7 summit in Japan on May 19-21, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended, a new set of sanctions was imposed to prevent Russia from accessing technologies, industrial equipment, and services from the group that supports its war efforts in Ukraine. The G7 also reaffirmed its commitment to providing Ukraine with the necessary equipment.
In conclusion, recent developments, whether related to the escalation on the battlefronts and Russia’s control of Bakhmut, as well as Western military support for Ukraine, suggest that the war is entering a new phase of escalation. This is particularly evident given the speculation that the long-awaited Ukrainian counterattack is imminent and the talk of a Russian mobilization for a large-scale attack.